Marine species are exposed to anthropogenic disturbances that cause animals to change behaviour, reduce their access to food and cause them to die, and which may ultimately result in population declines. Here we describe how knowledge of behavioural responses to disturbances can be incorporated in highly realistic agent-based models to assess whether populations are able to survive the different disturbances that we expose them to. We use the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) as model organism and demonstrate how to predict the combined population impacts of bycatch and noise from wind farm construction and ships. Based on this, we discuss what is needed to extend the framework to other species. We argue that spatially explicit, process-based models are needed to fully understand how competition for food and behavioural reactions to disturbances will shape the dynamics of populations when we change the marine environment.

Bringing together expertise from government, academia, nature conservation agencies and industry, PrePARED will address critical knowledge gaps that currently are barriers to sustainable offshore wind development but which need to be filled to help meet the government’s renewable energy targets and subsequently reach net zero emissions.