Institut for Ecoscience

Aarhus Universitets segl

Modellering og forudsigelse

Statistisk modellering og prognoser er afgørende for at anvende videnskabelig viden til at løse økologiske og miljømæssige spørgsmål.

Enhver troværdig prognose bør ledsages af en vurdering af usikkerhed, og ved at bruge avancerede statistiske teknikker tilstræber vi at kvantificere usikkerheden, samtidig med at vi undersøger, hvordan man bliver bedre til at lave prognoser.

Publikationer fra PURE

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Yu, H. & Damgaard, C. (2025). Identifying causal factors underlying vegetation changes in wet heathlands. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 32(3), 803-825. Artikel 110951. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-025-00663-9
Sørensen, P. B., Damgaard, C., Løgstrup Bjerg, P., Andersen, H. E., Holm, P. E., Tornbjerg, H., Bak, J. L., Heckrath, G. J., Kjeldgaard, A. & Fauser, P. (2022). Udvikling af model til understøttelse af vandplanlægningen i fastlæggelsen af koncentrationsniveauer af metaller i danske vandløb. Aarhus University, DCE - Danish Centre for Environment and Energy. Videnskabelig rapport fra DCE - Nationalt Center for Miljø og Energi Nr. 484 https://dce2.au.dk/pub/SR484.pdf
Sørensen, P. B., Damgaard, C., Bjerg, P. L., Andersen, H. E., Holm, P. E., Bak, J. L., Rasmussen, D. & Kjeldgaard, A. (2023). Videreudvikling af model for metaller i vandløbsvand: MetalStat. Aarhus University, DCE - Danish Centre for Environment and Energy. Videnskabelig rapport fra DCE - Nationalt Center for Miljø og Energi Bind 522 http://dce2.au.dk/pub/SR522.pdf
Moeslund, J. E. & Damgaard, C. F. (2024). Predicting Abiotic Soil Characteristics Using Sentinel-2 at Nature-Management-Relevant Spatial Scales and Extents. Remote Sensing, 16(16), Artikel 3094. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16163094
Løvschal, M. & Damgaard, C. (2022). Mapping the ecological resilience of Atlantic postglacial heathlands. Journal of Applied Ecology, 59(11), 2825-2838. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14278
Damgaard, C. F. (2019). Spatio-Temporal Structural Equation Modeling in a Hierarchical Bayesian Framework: What Controls Wet Heathland Vegetation? Ecosystems, 22(1), 152-164. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-018-0259-8
Damgaard, C., Strandberg, M. T., Kjær, C. & Sørensen, P. B. (2019). Use "Risk of system failure" rather than additive aggregation methods of indicators when assessing habitat quality. Ecological Indicators, 107, Artikel 105564. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105564
Damgaard, C. (2020). Measurement uncertainty in ecological and environmental models. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 35(10), 871-873. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2020.07.003
Damgaard, C. (2020). Miljømodellering og usikkerheder. Vand & Jord, 27(3), 115-116.
Damgaard, C. (2021). Integrating hierarchical statistical models and machine-learning algorithms for ground-truthing drone images of the vegetation: taxonomy, abundance and population ecological models. Remote Sensing, 13(6), Artikel 1161. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13061161
Damgaard, C. (2022). Adaptive management plans rooted in quantitative ecological predictions of ecosystem processes: putting monitoring data to practical use. Environmental Conservation, 49(1), 27 - 32. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892921000357
Damgaard, C. (2021). Use ecological data from national monitoring to help set-up local adaptive management plans.
Damgaard, C. (2022). Troværdige økologiske prognoser skal baseres på statistiske modeller fremfor kvalitative vurderinger. Altinget.
Damgaard, C. (2022). Spatio-temporal modelling of the effect of selected environmental and land-use factors on acid grassland vegetation. Journal of Plant Ecology, 15(2), 253-264. https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtab088
Damgaard, C. (2023). Spatio-temporal modelling of the effect of environmental and land-use factors on species-rich calcareous grasslands. Basic and Applied Ecology, 72, 22-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2023.07.001
Damgaard, C. (2024). Om brug af eksperter i miljø- og naturforvaltningen. https://cfddiverse.blogspot.com/2024/03/om-brug-af-eksperter-i-milj-og.html
Damgaard, C. (2024). Increased focus on measuring diversity may lead to a crisis in community ecology. Community Ecology, 25(3), 413–415. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42974-024-00184-8
Damgaard, C., Kaae, M. E., Weiner, J. & Bak, J. L. (2024). Both density- and frequency-dependent effects determine plant growth in a dune heath ecosystem. bioRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.09.12.612621v2
Damgaard, C., Bak, J. L., Strandberg, M. & Hansen, R. R. (2024). The resilience of heathland ecosystems: A working hypothesis. Acta Oecologica, 125, Artikel 104037. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actao.2024.104037
Damgaard, C. (2025). Local ecological predictions as input to adaptive management of natural plant communities  . Biological Conservation, 302, Artikel 110951. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110951

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Revideret 03.09.2024
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Else Vihlborg Staalsen