Department of Ecoscience

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 Department of Ecoscience Research/Consultancy Themes Modelling and Forecast

Modelling and Forecast

Modelling and forecasting is essential for applying scientific knowledge to address ecological and environmental issues

Any credible forecasting should be accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, and by using advanced statistical techniques we strive to quantify our uncertainty while studying how to get better at making predictions, i.e. reducing uncertainty.

Relevant publications from PURE

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Sørensen, P. B., Damgaard, C., Bjerg, P. L., Andersen, H. E., Holm, P. E., Bak, J. L., Rasmussen, D. & Kjeldgaard, A. (2023). Videreudvikling af model for metaller i vandløbsvand: MetalStat. Aarhus University, DCE - Danish Centre for Environment and Energy. Videnskabelig rapport fra DCE - Nationalt Center for Miljø og Energi Vol. 522 http://dce2.au.dk/pub/SR522.pdf
Damgaard, C., Strandberg, M. T., Kjær, C. & Sørensen, P. B. (2019). Use "Risk of system failure" rather than additive aggregation methods of indicators when assessing habitat quality. Ecological Indicators, 107, Article 105564. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105564
Damgaard, C. (2021). Use ecological data from national monitoring to help set-up local adaptive management plans.
Sørensen, P. B., Damgaard, C., Løgstrup Bjerg, P., Andersen, H. E., Holm, P. E., Tornbjerg, H., Bak, J. L., Heckrath, G. J., Kjeldgaard, A. & Fauser, P. (2022). Udvikling af model til understøttelse af vandplanlægningen i fastlæggelsen af koncentrationsniveauer af metaller i danske vandløb. Aarhus University, DCE - Danish Centre for Environment and Energy. Videnskabelig rapport fra DCE - Nationalt Center for Miljø og Energi No. 484 https://dce2.au.dk/pub/SR484.pdf
Damgaard, C. (2022). Troværdige økologiske prognoser skal baseres på statistiske modeller fremfor kvalitative vurderinger. Altinget.
Damgaard, C., Bak, J. L., Strandberg, M. & Hansen, R. R. (2024). The resilience of heathland ecosystems: A working hypothesis. Acta Oecologica, 125, Article 104037. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actao.2024.104037
Damgaard, C. F. (2019). Spatio-Temporal Structural Equation Modeling in a Hierarchical Bayesian Framework: What Controls Wet Heathland Vegetation? Ecosystems, 22(1), 152-164. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-018-0259-8
Damgaard, C. (2022). Spatio-temporal modelling of the effect of selected environmental and land-use factors on acid grassland vegetation. Journal of Plant Ecology, 15(2), 253-264. https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtab088
Damgaard, C. (2023). Spatio-temporal modelling of the effect of environmental and land-use factors on species-rich calcareous grasslands. Basic and Applied Ecology, 72, 22-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2023.07.001
Damgaard, C. (2025). Processes and predictions in ecological models: logic and causality. Journal of Forecasting, 44(5), 1658-1665. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3267
Moeslund, J. E. & Damgaard, C. F. (2024). Predicting Abiotic Soil Characteristics Using Sentinel-2 at Nature-Management-Relevant Spatial Scales and Extents. Remote Sensing, 16(16), Article 3094. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16163094
Damgaard, C. (2024). Om brug af eksperter i miljø- og naturforvaltningen. https://cfddiverse.blogspot.com/2024/03/om-brug-af-eksperter-i-milj-og.html
Damgaard, C. (2020). Miljømodellering og usikkerheder. Vand & Jord, 27(3), 115-116.
Damgaard, C. (2020). Measurement uncertainty in ecological and environmental models. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 35(10), 871-873. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2020.07.003
Løvschal, M. & Damgaard, C. (2022). Mapping the ecological resilience of Atlantic postglacial heathlands. Journal of Applied Ecology, 59(11), 2825-2838. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14278
Damgaard, C. (2025). Local ecological predictions as input to adaptive management of natural plant communities  . Biological Conservation, 302, Article 110951. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110951
Damgaard, C. (2021). Integrating hierarchical statistical models and machine-learning algorithms for ground-truthing drone images of the vegetation: taxonomy, abundance and population ecological models. Remote Sensing, 13(6), Article 1161. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13061161
Damgaard, C. (2024). Increased focus on measuring diversity may lead to a crisis in community ecology. Community Ecology, 25(3), 413–415. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42974-024-00184-8
Yu, H. & Damgaard, C. (2025). Identifying causal factors underlying vegetation changes in wet heathlands. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 32(3), 803-825. Article 110951. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-025-00663-9
Damgaard, C. (2025). Ecosystem dynamics in wet heathlands: spatial and temporal effects of environmental drivers on the vegetation. Rangeland Ecology & Management, 100, 47-55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2025.01.010

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